Growth is not the Problem - it's Retention

The National rate for growth for 07/08 as a percentage of 16/07 membership was 98% (all Councils).
http://www.scouts.ca/dnn/LinkClick.aspx ... 54&mid=759
This means that we are barely holding our own in terms of members. With a net loss of zero, that means that Scouting is losing as many members (non-retention) as it is gaining (growth). If other Councils are like ours, then Nationally, even though the numbers are steady, we are losing about 25% to 30% of our members every year. That's a revolving door.

If we want to find out where the problem is, I would say that the biggest retention problem is Colony - lots of reasons could be put forward. However, ask yourself this question: if you're trying to get a youth to enroll in your section for the coming year, who is easier to influence; a youth that you don't know and haven't met yet, or a youth whom you see every week? I think the answer is apparent!

Questions we can ask as to what we are doing now to get to the *why* of our retention problems;
- are our leaders trained to do their job?
- are our leaders providing a quality program for all sections?
- are we asking departing members *why* they are leaving?

I'm hearing great ideas for growth - I plan on using them. But maybe the problem with declining membership is not growth, but retention. Does anyone have any thoughts?

Mark.

Mark, I tend to agree with you that the retention problem is a more of a leadership problem than a youth problem.

I would add a fourth question, " Are we (non-section scouters, administration, council, national) adequately supporting section scouters?"

And I would modify your third question to specifically mention adults and youth.

To my mind, good leader training, on-going support, and as much continuity from year to year as possible will enable a group to offer quality programs. If the average Scouter is only staying 18 months, then groups can't provide the continuity, and regardless of how much support they, their area and council offer, the training is all but wasted.

When scouters don't stay, they don't get the benefit of experience gained, and the relationship and comfort level between section scouter, youth and parent must be continually re-established, making it more difficult to create lasting ties and retain youth. "If Akela is leaving, I don't think I'll go back."

I believe it is easy to recruit youth, it is difficult to recruit leaders, and more difficult to hold on to good leaders. If we want to retain youth, we need to retain good leaders.

Couple of quick stats that are relevant to the topic:

- to achieve sustained growth, retention needs to be at least 70% (an average stay of just over 3 years) given that we recruit 3 new members next year for every 10 members we have this year. This also means that if retention was 80%, or an average stay of 4 years, we would grow by 10% annually
- we're doing a good job of recruiting, why aren't people staying?

- 83% of people never join Scouting because they've never been personally asked to (according to a multi-country survey by WOSM)
- what can we do to personally invite more people?

- in countries where retention and growth aren't a significant problem, they are finding that the vast majority of youth don't stay in the movement beyond 6 years (according to a multi-country survey by WOSM)
- what does this mean if most of our recruiting is targeted at 5 year olds?

- a significant percentage of the people who leave the movement each year have simply forgotten to re-register (based on the experience of Northern Lights Council)
- what can we do to invite people back each year, and make sure that they re-register?

- youth who participate in a Scout summer camp are twice as likely to return the following year as those who don't (according to a BSA survey)
- what can we do to help more youth have summer Scouting experiences?

- leaders with no training stay an average of 18 months (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part I stay an average of 4 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part II stay an average of 10 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- what can we do to get more adults trained?

- our greatest loss of youth, both in sheer numbers and in percentage loss, occurs between a youth's 11th and 12th birthdays (based on Chinook Council MMS data mining done in summer 2009)
- what's significant about this age, why are youth choosing this point to leave, and what can be done about it?

>- in countries where retention and growth aren't a significant problem, they are finding that the vast majority of youth don't > stay in the movement beyond 6 years (according to a multi-country survey by WOSM)
>- what does this mean if most of our recruiting is targeted at 5 year olds?

I think that number of six years is high. From about 20 years of records in our group, I found the average stay to be:

Starting Section Average
Colony 2.79 years
Pack 1.98 years
Troop 1.77 years
Company 1.58 years
Overall 2.21 years

> - leaders with no training stay an average of 18 months (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
> - leaders with Woodbadge Part I stay an average of 4 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
> - leaders with Woodbadge Part II stay an average of 10 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
> - what can we do to get more adults trained?

Be careful to mix causality. It is not necessarily that leaders stay because they are trained. I suspect it is leaders that dedicate themselves to Scouting over the long term decided that they want training.

>- our greatest loss of youth, both in sheer numbers and in percentage loss, occurs between a youth's 11th and 12th birthdays >(based on Chinook Council MMS data mining done in summer 2009)
>- what's significant about this age, why are youth choosing this point to leave, and what can be done about it?

I didn't know Summer 2009 had passed What's significant is not the age, but that the kid had just completed their first year of Scouts, and evidently the program offered did not interest them.

- a significant percentage of the people who leave the movement each year have simply forgotten to re-register (based on the experience of Northern Lights Council)
- what can we do to invite people back each year, and make sure that they re-register?

I find it difficult to believe that there are many groups not contacting their youth and adult members with registration information, and after the fact reminders.

- leaders with no training stay an average of 18 months (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part I stay an average of 4 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part II stay an average of 10 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- what can we do to get more adults trained?

I agree with Allen. The link between training and retention is likely tenuous. Committed leaders take training, adults just trying to fill the leadership quota don't and they don't stay. Many, if not most, new leaders fall somewhere between these poles. The trick or approach is to turn new leaders into committed leaders. Offering them training as soon as possible is part of it, but only part.

- our greatest loss of youth, both in sheer numbers and in percentage loss, occurs between a youth's 11th and 12th birthdays (based on Chinook Council MMS data mining done in summer 2009)
- what's significant about this age, why are youth choosing this point to leave, and what can be done about it?

In two words -- high school. Kids get more control over their school life, more independence -- choosing courses, more extracurriculars, etc. . . A real break from elementary school. They want to carry that growing independence into their private life, at home and in other activities. That's natural.

We have to give them more control as Scouts, as I know many leaders strive to do.

Also I believe that kids that have formed bonds with each other during Cubs and into Scouts, are far more likely to stay in the program. And a good way to form bonds is to run an active, challenging program.

But that brings us or me, at least, back to leaders -- train them, support them, give them experience with youth, encourage them to build ties with youth and parents, create continuity in leadership and youth retention will improve.

- leaders with no training stay an average of 18 months (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part I stay an average of 4 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- leaders with Woodbadge Part II stay an average of 10 years (based on country wide MMS data mining done in early 2007)
- what can we do to get more adults trained?

Scouts Canada's new policy on training will help alleviate this situation. While untrained leaders may not be the only cause of poor programs and lack of retention, it is a significant factor.

And training doesn't just include the Woodbadge programs. There also needs to be, at the very least, informal mentoring by experienced Scouters. Case in point: I recently mentored a couple of section leaders who just came on this year. The previous leadership was gone and the new leaders didn't get their Part I until the spring. Without either of those, they found themselves struggling to put together an effective program. The youth seemed bored and restless and not only was retention a problem, but so was recruitment.

I'm not naive enough to think the couple of nights and the report I'll send them will solve all of their problems, but it will certainly help.

- our greatest loss of youth, both in sheer numbers and in percentage loss, occurs between a youth's 11th and 12th birthdays (based on Chinook Council MMS data mining done in summer 2009)
- what's significant about this age, why are youth choosing this point to leave, and what can be done about it?

I agree, high school is a factor. So is the "coolness" factor - kids are highly influenced by their peers and if they get among a group of junior high/high school friends who don't think Scouting is cool, Scouting youth will be more likely to leave.

Cost is also a factor. As youth enter Scouts, uniforms (especially if they need to buy a new tan shirt), equipment and program become more expensive. The troop my son was involved with had a program (camping, day trips, etc.) at least twice a month. Adding up the cost of registration, uniform, camps/events, equipment proved extremely expensive.

While the No Scout Left Behind program will help with this, many parents still don't know about it and/or are too ashamed to ask for the help.

>While the No Scout Left Behind program will help with this, many parents still don't know about it and/or are too ashamed to ask for the help.

The NOLB program is great. However, the rich families pay, the poor families ask for help, but the 80% in the middle just decide when activities are out of their reach.

I'm not sure about how you do things in Ontario but at the 11-12 age high school is not a problem since it doesn't start until 14 or 15. When does it start in Ontario? I tend to believe that the program is not compelling enough if a Scout leaves after their first year. And I really mean COMPELLING! We need to be running great programs and we need to be training the youth how to do it. We spend FAR to much time in the gym or 'classroom'. The national standards are too weak in regards to this. In my opinion, one weekend outing every two months is not enough and one regular meeting per month outdoors is not nearly enough. Go outside, at least for part of the meeting, every week. Hold the entire meeting outdoors in the local park.

Six nights at camp annually is tough if groups end in April and don't start again until the fall. This is probably my biggest peeve. We wait all winter for summer to come and give us beautiful weather but where are we? Not at camp and not doing things! Why? The group ended two or three months previously. At a recent meeting I held to investigate the startup of a special needs group in my area we asked all of the parents present what they would like to see in terms of a 'scouting year'. Their response...100% said they wanted the group to run all year. The survey question on the main SC web site curently shows 90% wanting summer activities. By ending in April and not starting until September we give the youth 1/3 of a year to find other things. All year troops CAN be done and DO work. How do I know? Because every group I've been with over the last 20 years have run all year.

Garth